4% Rule, 4.7%, or Whatever - They're All Seriously Flawed ❌


Hello! Jesse Cramer here.

Thank you for reading The Best Interest blog,

And listening to my podcast, Personal Finance for Long-Term Investors.


From the blog...

Reader Brent wrote in last week:

I probably need to read Bill Bengen’s book but I have a question about the 4% (or now 4.7%) Withdrawal Rule.
Seems to be that a pretty conservative investment could get you a Return Rate of 4% (or even 4.7%) so is it correct in thinking that you are really only digging into the principal of your retirement savings for inflation?
With that thought in mind maybe throwing a high % retirement savings in Laddered TIPS is the way to go since it accounts for inflation.
Or have I got this all wrong?

Brent – that’s a terrific and prevalent question. Retirees often hear “the 4% rule” and think, “Hmm – so, I just need to find an investment that returns 4% per year, and then I’m set for all my retirement?”

I believe that most retirees (and plenty of financial professionals) do not understand the process, the data, the assumptions, or the results of “the 4% rule.”

  • It’s built on assumptions.
  • Those assumptions are understandable, but rarely applicable to our individual, unique lives.
  • The data behind the study is “the best we can muster,” but still limited.
  • All these assumptions above provide not just one outcome, but a spectrum of outcomes.
  • Then, we take those outcomes and build a singular rule that skews ALL THE WAY to the conservative side of that spectrum.

That is the 4% rule. Despite its apparent limitations and flaws described above, the 4% Rule casts a huge shadow over the world of retirement.

We must zoom out and revisit first principles. How did we get here? We’ll gain a broader understanding of how to effectively apply the 4% rule (or another withdrawal rate) to our retirement scenario.

👉 The 4% Rule, 4.7% Rule…

We Need To Rethink All of Them



On the podcast...

Episode 118 of the podcast is our 9th Ask Me Anything "AMA" episode. I tackle questions about:

  • A challenge to the idea that age alone dictates portfolio strategy
  • A listener who recently inherited $1 million on how to integrate the windfall into an early retirement plan.
  • The difference between risk tolerance and risk capacity
  • A question about bonds leading to a deep dive on duration, interest rate sensitivity, and why bond funds and individual bonds behave more alike than many investors assume
  • Seven strategies for boosting earnings over time
  • A clear, neutral, deep primer on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency

🎧 Our Ninth Ask Me Anything AMA Episode | Ep 118

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The Only Free Lunch in Inves...
Oct 8 · Personal Finance for Lon...
86:39
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I'm collecting questions for AMAs 11 and 12.

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By night, I run The Best Interest and Personal Finance for Long-Term Investors.

By day, I work for a fiduciary wealth management firm in Rochester, NY, helping busy professionals and retirees avoid costly mistakes and grow lasting wealth to and through retirement.

Learn more here.


In Closing

Thank you, as always, for reading, listening, and getting in touch. The project continues because the audience (that's you!) is amazing.

People like you send me questions every single day.

I’d love to hear from you.

Go ahead! Send an email or ask me question: ​jesse@bestinterest.blog​

Until next week,

Jesse

Jesse Cramer

I help busy professionals and retirees avoid costly mistakes and grow lasting wealth through retirement. I write a blog, produce a podcast, and create this free weekly newsletter to an audience of 25,000+ monthly members. Subscribe and learn!

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